TV By The Numbers ~ the Ex-List disappoints

Friday Night Ratings: Ex-List disappoints
by Robert Seidman

Things keep getting worse for Friday nights. CBS won the night overall, but both the premiere of The Ex List and the return of Numb3rs must have been a little disappointing for the EYE network. The Ex List was down off the premiere of Moonlight a year ago, but Numb3rs was also down noticeably.

Despite the woes, CBS was the only network to have two shows place over 8 million viewers.

Moonlight Fans — I’m not sure this info is gloat-worthy, but I’m not sure it isn’t. There is no denying that Moonlight did have 8 million viewers in its premiere last year and that The Ex List didn’t. And although The Ex-List had slightly more 18-49 year old viewers than Moonlight’s finale, even in the finale, Moonlight drew 7.47 million. You can see last year’s numbers for Moonlight’s first-run airings here.

http://tinyurl.com/4on4cm

TV By The Numbers ~ True Blood Luckier Than Moonlight

HBO’s ‘True Blood’ Renewed: Less Watched But Luckier Than ‘Moonlight”
by Robert Seidman

HBO announced it is renewing its new series True Blood after only two airings. Please note that where it says 4 million people have viewed the season premiere from September 7, HBO is counting the cumulative views of the first airing and all the re-airings of that episode. The premiere drew 1.4 million in its first airing and the second episode drew 1.8 million in its initial airing. Though the numbers are weak compared to the glory days of The Sopranos and Sex and the City, the growth for the second episode is impressive and HBO seems to like that people are actually watching the additional airings. HBO loves it some Alan Ball! I’m really looking forward to seeing how the True Blood/Entourage combo fares against Dexter and Californication starting September 28. Here’s the release from HBO:

HBO RENEWS TRUE BLOOD, NEW SERIES FROM “SIX FEET UNDER” CREATOR ALAN BALL, FOR SECOND SEASON, WITH PRODUCTION TO BEGIN EARLY NEXT YEAR

LOS ANGELES, Sept. 17, 2008 - HBO has renewed the new drama series TRUE BLOOD for a second season, it was announced today by Michael Lombardo, president, Programming Group and West Coast Operations. Created by Alan Ball, the series will begin production of new episodes early next year in Los Angeles, with debut set for summer 2009.

“We are absolutely thrilled that the critics and our viewers have embraced TRUE BLOOD,” noted Lombardo. “Alan Ball has done it again - made an addictive series that is unlike any other.”

“I am thrilled to be able to continue to work with such a talented group of writers, cast and crew to explore the characters and world created by Charlaine Harris in her novels,” Ball said. “It really is a joy to go to work every day and I couldn’t be happier to be back home at HBO.”

The Sept. 7 debut episode is proving to be a hit with HBO audiences, attracting more than four million viewers to date, while the debut of the second episode on Sept. 14 posted an unprecedented 24% gain in viewers over the first week’s debut.

Critics across the country in Detroit, Baltimore, Denver and Orlando have proclaimed TRUE BLOOD one of the best new shows on TV. USA Today called it “wildly imaginative,” with “one of the best ensembles of the new series,” while the Washington Post found it “audacious, outrageous and playfully grisly.” TV Guide hailed the show as “graphically sexy and scary, and often wildly funny,” and “a broadly entertaining, deliciously twisted slice of modern Southern Gothic.”

Mixing romance, suspense, mystery and humor, TRUE BLOOD takes place in the not-too-distant future, when vampires have come out of the coffin, thanks to the invention of mass-produced synthetic blood that means they no longer need humans for their fix. Set in a backwoods Louisiana town, the show follows the romance between waitress Sookie Stackhouse (played by Anna Paquin), who can read minds, and 173-year-old vampire Bill Compton (played by Stephen Moyer). Alan Ball (creator of the Emmy(R)-winning HBO series “Six Feet Under”) created and executive produced the show, as well as wrote and directed episodes of the series, which is based on the popular Sookie Stackhouse novels by Charlaine Harris.

The cast also includes Ryan Kwanten as Sookie’s brother Jason, Rutina Wesley as her best friend Tara Thornton, Sam Trammell as Sookie’s good-hearted boss Sam Merlotte and Nelsan Ellis as Lafayette Reynolds, a cook at Merlotte’s.

http://tinyurl.com/4j6br6

Why is the 18 to 49 demo so important?

The always informative Robert Seidman has written an article trying to explain a bit about the importance of the 18 to 49 demographic ratings to television networks. He discusses how he thinks this related to our beloved Moonlight being canceled. As we have discussed in lots of posts about ratings, the bottom line is money. You are not surprised, huh? Advertisers are willing to pay more to air commercials during shows that have a large demo share.

Many of you have been posting about Swingtown, and following its performance due to Nina Tassler's support of the program. As you will read, it is the main focus of Robert's piece.

Yellow highlights are my emphasis.

TV by the Numbers
CBS' Swingtown : Wanting to believe in Santa Claus
by Robert Seidman

SOMEDAY I may better understand the mechanics of the millennial mind. Until then I will wonder how shows like “Ghost Whisperer” keep going and a series like “Swingtown” fails to catch on. A period piece on CBS, “Swingtown” nears the end of its summer run with a dwindling audience despite all the elements that seemed to point to its potential for popularity. - Gina Belafonte in the New York Times’ piece, Swingtown and the Heyday of Average.

I was excited to read the rest of the piece because I thought it was going to be a commentary on the state of broadcast network television programming and how shows are positioned and promoted for success. But it wasn’t. It was just gushing praise for the doomed CBS generational show, Swingtown.

I don’t think the mechanics of the millennial mind are why Ghost Whisperer is on the air and series like Swingtown don’t catch on, but rather the mechanics of the business. You can’t push a program to Friday night and blame it on the millennial generation. They are the least likely to be watching TV on Friday. But let’s face it, by the time CBS moved it to Fridays, it wasn’t hoping the show would catch on. It was merely, as they say in baseball, playing out the string.

CBS may dismiss the notion of needing to target to 18-49 year olds and 18-34 year olds, but it’s on CBS’ mind regardless of its public comments. The question is whether a show like Swingtown would appeal to anyone under the age of 40 or so. I don’t doubt that it would, but I think what’s really going on is this: shows have a very limited time to catch on with the 18-49 crowd. The networks aren’t willing to wait it out. Genre shows like Moonlight get cancelled not because it didn’t have enough viewers, but because it didn’t have enough viewers who were 18-49 years old. If Moonlight had done 33% better in that category it would likely be back on in the fall.

It’s Not Ageism, It’s Supply and Demand

I feel obligated to write this disclaimer now anytime we right about age demographics. A lot of people cry foul at the age demos, but even though I am myself getting pretty aged, I don’t have a problem with it. Advertisers don’t want large 18-49 populations and 18-34 populations specifically because its where they want to hawk their products though in products specifically aimed at younger people that is certainly the case, as it should be. Advertisers want to reach these age demographics and are willing to pay more for them because they are far more scarce in the television world. Finding a show where you can find a large population of people in a specific age and gender are gold mines (think Grey’s Anatomy with women 18-34 and 18-49).

Reaching the 50 and over crowd is relatively easy. They watch a lot of TV, day and night, day in, day out. Availability is not scarce, and the advertisers have so many opportunities to reach that demographic in so many ways it’s less valuable to them. Because it’s harder to reach the younger demographics, it becomes more valuable to reach.

So What Was CBS Thinking?

I think CBS was believing in Santa Claus really. I understand it. It would be nice if there was a Santa Claus, the notion that such a thing could exist is very pleasing. The notion that because a show is good, and very creative and even interesting and different that just because of that it will succeed? That’s like believing in Santa Claus. Not just because of the millennial mind either but because of the nature of the way the business works these days.

A lot of the appeal of shows like Swingtown and Mad Men is just how well they nail the period they cover. I’ve yet to watch Swingtown, but I will give it a look after the Olympics and after I get caught up on Damages, Generation Kill and Weeds. But I trust the likes of Ms. Belafonte that Swingtown has captured the essence of the 1970s well. But who’s that aspect of the show going to appeal the most to? People who were alive in the 1970s! If you were even a young 18 in 1975, you’re over 50 now and outside of demos coveted by advertisers.

It doesn’t matter what the networks say publicly. Shows need to have at least moderate success among the under 50 crowd or they will fail. The leash isn’t typically long either. Shows need to score in the under 50 demos quickly. Swingtown started out OK out of the gate on Thursdays in that regard with modest success (at least for the summer) in the under 50 demographics, but then the show kept bleeding viewers.

A New Hope?

The networks actually do have the luxury of giving at least a show or two a longer leash. It’s not like the networks aren’t making money hand over fist as it is, or they wouldn’t mostly completely throw in the towel with the Friday night and Saturday night lineups. While shows like Moonlight and Jericho had a fairly sizable loyal fan base (both on the Internet and to some degree in terms of viewers) these shows struck out with the youthful demos, and they weren’t critically acclaimed.

I’m not going to fault Gina Belafonte for doing her part to save a show that she likes, I have seen several other TV critics who were digging Swingtown. I doubt in the case of Swingtown, it will make any difference whatsoever. We have two data points that suggest clearly CBS has already made up its mind on this show and is ready to move on:

It switched it to Fridays, giving Flashpoint the better Thursday night slot. Kiss of death.

It aired a *new* episode of Swingtown up against the Olympic opening ceremonies. While I’m sure not even NBC expected the stellar numbers the opening ceremonies drew, any programming executive at the other networks knew that the ceremonies would be the most-watched thing on television. That doesn’t explain why NBC Uni itself ran new episodes of Monk and Psych on USA network on Friday night, but still…

I don’t believe we need to wait for the formal announcement from CBS.

I don’t think critical praise is new hope for a show like Swingtown. Many viewers lament the “same old crap” that gets put on the air. Yay, another police, crime, lawyer, doctor procedural! I understand. But what works, works, and as long as it works, that’s likely just going to be the way it is.

A show like Swingtown needs to catch on, and catch on fast. That’s a circumstance that you’ll rarely see happen on broadcast network television, especially in the summer without a big budget for promotion.

At the end of the day, the best new hope for new, creative and different content is…cable.

http://tvbythenumbers.com/2008/08/10/cbs-swingtown-wanting-to-believe-in-santa-claus/4642

Poll ~ Will Ex-List do better than Moonlight?

Robert Seidman has created a new poll at TV By Numbers. He asks if Ex-List will do better than our beloved Moonlight in the 18 to 49 demo ratings.

CBS Fall Schedule: Will Ex-List Do Better Than Moonlight?

We know the Moonlight fans are not happy about the cancellation. We’re sure even they will be especially interested to see how Ex-List does this coming fall on Fridays at 9pm on CBS. The real question isn’t whether Ex-List will do better in Moonlight in terms of total viewers, but whether Ex-List will outperform Moonlight in the coveted 18-49 demographic.

Although on one hand CBS claims that it doesn’t really care about the 18-49 demo, but when it came to Moonlight they made it clear that they certainly do care about that demographic. The truth is, Ex-List could have 2 million fewer viewers than Moonlight but if it winds up getting a 2.5 in the demo, CBS will see it as progress. So the question is: will the Ex-List do better than Moonlight in the 18-49 demographic? We’ve created a poll to let you weigh in.

http://tinyurl.com/4famdo

TV by the Numbers talks about Moonlight's ratings

Robert Seidman, from TV by the Numbers, has written an informative column regarding Moonlight's ratings. He speculates about what CBS may be thinking &/or concerned with in terms of picking up our show for its second season.

Nielsen Ratings Friday May 2, 2008: CBS and Moonlight Are Consistent

CBS took another Friday night during May sweeps and the week looks pretty much similar to last week across the board except that ABC ran an extra 20/20 instead of America’s Funniest Home Videos. And FOX was again dead last, beaten out by the CW and its outgoing WWE product, Friday Night Smackdown! The CW’s loss will be MyNetTV’s gain.

Only CBS had any shows with a 2.0 or better in the 18-49 demographic. Ghost Whisperer (2.3/8), Moonlight (2.1/6) and Numb3rs (2.4/7) all cleared the 2.0 bar. No other shows did. Technically the 10pm hour of Dateline hit 2.0, but if you take Dateline over its full 9p-11p run, it didn’t.

While not quite as awful as Saturdays its getting there other than CBS. Sure, more younger people aren’t at home on Fridays, but the reason the shows other than CBS don’t pull better demo numbers is the programming.

I know Marc Berman didn’t have glowing things to say about on the bubble Moonlight (hey, at least he didn’t call it a “loser”!). The thing Moonlight probably has going for it is fairly remarkable consistency among its fan base. A four month hiatus didn’t cause a drop of 2 million viewers. If that had happened we’d be writing the obituary already. But the fans all came back. It beat everything it was up against on broadcast television and won the 18-49 demo for its timeslot. Just like last week. These are all positive signs.

The only thing that should really concern Moonlight fans is CBS thinking something like this, “OK, no matter what we stick on at 9pm it loses a million viewers from 8pm and all of them and more come back at 10pm. Can we put something on at 9pm that will perform as well as Moonlight and be cheaper?”

I’m hampered by not knowing the cost of producing Moonlight. I know they could stick on The Price is Right and it would probably do fairly consistently in viewers, but at least a little worse than Moonlight in the demographic. But you can’t really syndicate repeats of game shows, or sell DVDs of game shows. You can with scripted dramas and that winds up meaning extra revenue.

So the only way I see CBS pulling the plug on Moonlight is if they think they have a scripted drama that will perform as well or better that can be made for less money. I’m more of a “a bird in the hand…” guy, but we’ll have to wait just a little bit longer to see if CBS thinks as reasonably as I do.

http://tinyurl.com/4lfqht

TV by the Numbers ~ Bill Gorman ~ thinks CBS will renew Moonlight

Bill Gorman, from TV by the Numbers, keeps track of the data, statistics & ratings for television shows. He gives his opinion on the chances of Moonlight being renewed for a second season.

CBS “On The Bubble”: Jericho, Moonlight, Cane

Our Renew or Cancel? posts have been on hiatus since the new fall shows went dormant. Now we’ve got some data on the spring shows as well, and it’s time to look at the numbers and take some guesses on who’s coming back next fall and who’s going away permanently.

The Case for Moonlight

Moonlight ratings put it #30 at CBS for season to date adults 18-49, and #26 for average viewers.

Moonlight aired in a lightly viewed timeslot on Fridays, so its relative timeslot ratings matter. There it was very slightly behind Friday Night Lights [18-49, 2.90m, Viewers, 6.21m] for the 18-49 lead, but solidly in second place for average viewers behind Women’s Murder Club [18-49, 2.63m, Viewers, 8.94m].

Moonlight gets another chance to prove itself this spring with 4 new episodes starting April 25.

My Guesses

It’s possible that all 3 of these shows get the axe, but I think that’s unlikely. But even with CBS scrambling after the writer’s strike, I think there’s is no chance they’re all coming back.

My money is on a Moonlight renewal and Cane and Jericho cancellations.

http://tinyurl.com/2ojyhg